This post covers Introduction to probability from Statistics for Engineers and Scientists by William Navidi.

Task

Find the probability of a local to get infection in each region by inferencing statistics for a sample. Let p represent the proportion of success i.e., success probability in the population that will be COVID-19 positive. We wish to find a 95%-confidence interval for p.

Step1: Collect the numbers of COVID-19 patients per day in the country. Collect the numbers of TESTs conducted per day. The dataset should look like in the given Table. Please use the web resources for the given task e.g.

• twitter.com
• facebook.com
• scoop.com
• bruhealth app

Step2: Let p represent the proportion of success i.e., success probability in the population that will be COVID-19 positive. Choose one of the commonly used probability distribution to present the COVID-19 pandemic over the Brunei population.

Step3: Approximate the distribution by Normal distribution.

Step4: InInference statistics with the Confidence interval over the Brunei population for the obtained Probability distribution e.g. inference the normal mean and inference the normal proportion.

Step5: Take the samples a small number n (e.g., n < 30) and take the samples be a large n (n > 30). Plot both the normal curves with mean 0 and variance 1 (z curve) for comparison experiment.

The following map of the newly diagnosed cases was shared by Minister of Health on 25-Sep-2021.

Step5: Find the probability of a local to get infection in a given region by inferencing statistics for a sample